**Both Problems 23-A and 23-B use the following information**.

You are given the following:

- A portfolio of independent risks is divided into two classes.
- Each class contains the same number of risks.
- For each risk in Class 1, the claim size follows a zero-truncated geometric distribution with mean 1.5.
- For each risk in Class 2, the claim size follows a zero-truncated geometric distribution with mean 2.5.
- See definition of zero-truncated distribution here.

A risk is selected at random from the portfolio. The first claim observed for this risk is 3.

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**Problem 23-A**

Calculate the Bayesian credibility estimate of the expected value of the next claim that will be observed for this risk.

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**Problem 23-B**

Calculate the Buhlmann credibility estimate of the expected value of the next claim that will be observed for this risk.

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Tagged: Actuarial Exam, Bayesian Credibility, Bayesian Probability, Buhlmann Credibility, CAS Exam 4, CAS Exam 4 Practice Problem, Geometric Distribution, Loss Models, Probability, Severity, SOA Exam C, SOA Exam C Practice Problem, Zero-Truncated Geometric Distribution

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